Climate variables used as response: - sfcWind,
tas, pr: original scale daily,
reduced scale: hourly - clt, rsds:
original scale monthly, reduced scale: daily
Training: All models are trained using ERA5 in reduced scale as observations. Training data perdiod: 1980 - 2015.
Validation Period: 2015-01-29 to 2023-12-03
Response variable to predict: upscaled ERA5 (daily or monthly)
Predictors variables: daily scale the variables
sfcWind, tas, pr,
tasmax, tasmin and psl and in a
monthly scale clt, rsdt,rsds ,
the month and the daily daylight amount in seconds.
| Metric | xgboost | cnn | naive | lstm |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| mae | 16.59 | 20.87 | 23.54 | 19.07 |
| cor | 0.97 | 0.95 | 0.94 | 0.96 |
| ratio_of_sd | 0.96 | 0.95 | 0.94 | 0.97 |
| KGE | 0.95 | 0.93 | 0.92 | 0.95 |
| amplitude_mae_monthly | 22.37 | 20.12 | 32.49 | 21.40 |
| sign_correlation | 0.81 | 0.75 | 0.74 | 0.78 |
| extreme_correlation | 1.00 | 0.77 | 0.78 | 0.92 |
| qqplot_mae | 3.30 | 4.71 | 7.13 | 2.68 |
| acf_mae | 0.05 | 0.04 | 0.06 | 0.04 |
| extremogram_mae | 0.02 | 0.04 | 0.03 | 0.03 |
Observations: cumulative distribution (Detrended QQ), dependency structure (ACF), and extremes (Extremogram, using 0.97 cut off).
Daily/Monthly gruped: Maximum hour histogram (only in daily variables), Amplitude distribution.
Hourly/Daily grouped: Mean profile per hour within days (or weeks witihin season)
In all plots, grey color represent the true ERA5 signal.